NFL Preview: NFC South Six-Pack

Atlanta Falcons

The biggest story in Atlanta was that Matt Ryan was able to help the Falcons win 11 games. He was able to silence some of his critics by throwing for almost 3,500 yards and 16 touchdowns. I was one of those critics, who felt that although Ryan was a pretty good college QB, he was overrated. Looking back at his stats, Ryan struggled a bit over his last seven games (throwing six interceptions to just five touchdowns). He was also assisted by a pretty good defense and a strong running game. I don’t see Matty Ice being significantly better this year.

Another thing that may hold back the Falcons passing offense is the lack of weapons. Sure they signed Tony Gonzalez, who is one of the best to have ever played the position, but the coaches have said that he will be used as a run blocker. In Kansas City, the offense ran through Gonzalez. As it stands right now, the offense does, and will continue to run through HB Michael Turner. Giving Jerious Norwood wouldn’t be a bad idea. His career ypc average is 5.8 and his increased role will lighten Turner’s load – Turner will get over 300 carries anyway.

WR Roddy White is now at least $18.6 million richer. He needs to stay hungry and give the Falcons a return on their investment. He is the only go-to WR that the Dirty Birds have, but he’s no Derrick Mason.

Is Jamaal Anderson a bust? In two years in Atlanta he has just two sacks and less than 60 tackles. What’s worse is that the Falcons need help on the defensive line, especially in the pass rushing department. Of the Falcons 34 sacks in 2008, almost half of those were recorded by John Abraham.

With the departure of 6′2” 345 lbs DT Grady Jackson, the Falcons have another hole on the defensive line. Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry was the Falcons first selection in this years draft, but his contribution will be minimal.

Chris Houston is now undisputed #1 CB on the team. While he has not had a fantastic NFL career, he will have to elevate his game to make up for a soft pass defense.

Prediction: 6-8 wins

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers also have problems along the defensive line. MLB Jon Beason has said that the team needs to pick up a veteran DT. They should pick up as many tackles as they can. Maake Kemoeatu tore his achilles and is out for the year. That spells trouble for the Panthers defense.

LE Tyler Brayton is solid. Julius Peppers will have to play like a monster this year, to get his big contract in the offseason (the Panthers slapped the franchise tag on him). The big but is that neither DE is capable enough against the run to make up for the lack of a quality DT on the Panthers roster.

Their linebacking corps is pretty good with Beason and OLB Thomas Davis, who racked up 113 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year.

Richard Marshall now finds himself as the starting CB opposite Chris Gamble, which might actually be a saving grace for the team. Both corners are aggressive against the run and may provide some welcome relief to the front seven.

I was shocked that the Panthers extended QB Jake Delhomme after his six turnover performance against the Cardinals. It’s clear that his best days are behind him. Clearly, he is nothing more than a game manager and a guy who doesn’t mind handing the ball off to the two-headed monster that is Jon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.

The running game is what will keep the Panthers in games. It will open up the passing game and allow Steve Smith to stretch the defense. Dwayne Jarrett has made some strides in his development, but this is the season he has to emerge as a legitimate NFL threat.

Prediction: 6-8 wins

New Orleans Saints

It is hard to crown QB Drew Brees as the top quarterback in the NFL without a ring, but it’s hard not to place him right behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Last year, he was just 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s 24 year old record (5,084). Unfortunately for Drew, he missed his opportunity to break that record.

The reason is that the Saints have finally found a replacement for Deuce McAllister. By now it is almost universally recognized, and it pleases me to say, that Reggie Bush is a bust. He is nothing more than a slot receiver, who refuses to line up on the line of scrimmage. Pierre Thomas has averaged 4.8 ypc (1 whole yard more than Bush’s career high) for his career, reaching that total in each of his two seasons in the league. He is just as effective in the redzone as he is in the middle of the field, and while not having blazing speed, he is very elusive. Thomas will give the Saints a balanced offense for the first time in several seasons.

Both Brees and Thomas are helped by a pretty solid offensive line. It gave up only 13 sacks in 2008.

The Saints’ defensive line only recorded 28 sacks in 2008, but that number should increase this season. My top DT of the 2007 draft, Sedrick Ellis, played well last year, but should have an even better season with the addition of veteran Paul Spicer from Jacksonville and the return of a healthy Charles Grant and Will Smith.

The Saints’ secondary has been a sieve over the past several seasons, but is improving quickly. Although Jason David had a career high 5 interceptions last season, he is not the long term solution. 2nd year CB Tracy Porter and rookie Michael Jenkins are bright spots on the Saints’ roster.

LB Scott Shanle is playing better as of late. Even so, I would like to see the Saints sign free agent LB Derrick Brooks to shore up their front seven.

Prediction: 9-11 wins and NFC South winner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you haven’t heard, the Bucs are rebuilding. Fittingly, the Bucs brought back their creamsicle-orange uniforms for the 2009 season.

Tampa Bay has four quarterbacks on the roster. The kicker is that not one of them is ready to be a starter in the NFL. If the Bucs have any sense at all, they will sit Josh Freeman and develop him, as opposed to throwing him to the lions. Second year signal caller Josh Johnson seems to be the team’s best QB. In any case he’s a better alternative to either Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown.

By no means is the offensive line impressive, but Jeff Faine is a good center. The rest of the line is just not very effective in the run or the pass and is especially weak at the guard position.

This team is not absent of talent, however. Jermaine Phillips, who has played safety for his previous 7 seasons in the league, has moved to OLB. He was never the best coverage guy, so this move should benefit him and the Bucs’ defense.

I like the safety combo of Sabby Piscitelli and Tanard Jackson. Even better, three very athletic “safeties” and MLB Barrett Ruud can all be featured in the Bucs base defense.

HBs Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham are solid contributors, but neither are true big play threats. Kellen Winslow is a huge upgrade over Jerramy Stevens, but isn’t an elite TE. The Bucs will have to hope their defense can keep other teams’ offenses off the field.

Prediction: 1-3 wins

Will Brett Favre or Michael Vick Return to Greatness? Come read to find out.