NFL Preview: NFC North Six-Pack

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler wearing familiar colors in Chicago revolutionizes the Bears. He might be the best thing that has happened to the franchise in quite some time.

The addition of Cutler changes the way that the Bears utilize their top playmakers (more often than not running backs). Typically, they overuse them, essentially running them into the ground. Matt Forte had a fantastic rookie campaign and will benefit from playing with a capable quarterback.

Devin Hester is a player to watch this year. The return specialist-to-wide receiver project is likely to start paying dividends. Eddie Royal reminds me a bit of Devin Hester, who as a rookie in Denver, caught 91 balls for almost 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns (better than Hester in every statistical category except yards per catch).

The Bears defense is getting older. Adewale Ogunleye, Brian Urlacher, and Alex Brown are all over 30. All three had pretty good years in 2008, but will fatigue set in over the course of this season?

If fatigue is not an issue, what will the front seven do to generate a better pass rush? No player had more than six sacks last year.

The Bears need to settle their secondary situation during camp. CB Charles “Peanut” Tillman is out indefinitely after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to clean up a disc in his back. Safety is another position of weakness. Can Danieal Manning get back to form? Will Corey Graham start there?

Prediction: 9-11 wins

Detroit Lions

Rumor has it that Daunte Culpepper will be cut, allowing rookie Matt Stafford to take the field on opening day, trying to mirror the success Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan had during their first year. Of course, the difference is that the Lions are not as good of a team. It can’t be all bad though. Stafford will have one of the better WRs in the world in Calvin Johnson. Rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew will impress (if he is not relegated strictly to blocking duty).

Pettigrew very well might have to. As it looks right now, the Lions brought back four out of the five ‘08 starters at the offensive line. Unfortunately, those four just aren’t very good at pass blocking. Stafford might need a bulletproof vest, because he is going to take some shots.

The Lions’ line did a pretty good job opening holes for HB Kevin Smith. Smith should be able to put up better numbers this year with an increased workload.

Much to the chagrin of Lions fans, most of the starters on the defensive line were brought back. They signed a couple of linemen in free agency, but none of impact. The biggest need on this team is a good defensive tackle (followed by OTs and DEs).

Although the trenches have been left intact, the Lions were able to bring in some veteran upgrades at LB. OLB Julian Peterson and MLB Larry Foote should win both position battles and team up with OLB Ernie Sims – very productive, but underrated.

Personnel moves were made in the secondary as well. CBs Anthony Henry, Eric King, Will James, and Phillip Buchanon should collectively improve an inefective pass defense. S Marquand Manuel once again finds himself in the NFC North, but will impress no one.

Prediction: 3-5 wins

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers has received a good amount of criticism in the offseason about his inability to close games. I watched just about every Packer game last year and it was the defense, not the offense (and certainly not the QB), who let us down late in games. Still skeptical? Want more proof? The cold, hard facts can be found here.

The Packers’ defense was hampered by injuries across all levels (defensive line, linebackers, secondary). With a rehabilitated and re-energized squad going into training camp, I’m expecting a better defensive unit in 2009. Two guys which will be nice to have back are ILB Nick Barnett who has great speed and instincts, and SS Atari Bigby who is a big hitter and should thrive in the 3-4.

DE/DT Cullen Jenkins is now fully recovered from his pectoral tear. Training camp reports describe him as a “blur” and even “unblockable”. If that doesn’t get a fan excited, I don’t know what could. Without Jenkins, the Packers only had 27 sacks last year in Bob Sanders defensive “scheme” (vanilla, man coverage, no adjustments). When Jenkins is healthy, the Pack average 41 sacks per year. And with Dom Capers aggressive, attacking defense, that sack total should increase.

CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris have taken a liking to the new defense. Nickel CB Tramon Williams is good enough to be a starter on many NFL teams, but is sitting behind two veterans. I don’t think it’s just wishful thinking to say that the Packers’ secondary (best in class) can get more than 22 interceptions this year.

Offensively, young players like WR James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and TE Jermichael Finley will see more balls thrown their way. Finley may even jump starter Donald Lee in the depth chart.

An underperforming offensive line has also hurt Green Bay’s championship prospects. The Packers’ line is young, but now they have several seasons under their belts. There is also a heated competition for two spots on the right side of the line between C/G Jason Spitz, C Scott Wells, and OG Josh Sitton. Let the best man win…and let HB Ryan Grant run wild.

Prediction: 10-12 wins and NFC North Winner

Minnesota Vikings

He-who-shall-not-be-named did not end up signing with the Vikings. I guess his hatred for Packers GM Ted Thompson and the Packers wasn’t strong enough for him to want to strap on the pads for another disappointing season. Although, I could see that QB being added to the squad later in the season, when Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels show everyone why they shouldn’t be starters.

Adrian “All Day” Peterson is a monster. NO ONE DENIES THIS. But he added a couple pounds to his frame and has come out saying that he hasn’t worked on ball security at all in the offseason. In two years, he has fumbled 13 times, losing 7 of them. How many games will he literally let slip out of his hands in 2009?

Last year, the Vikes had the best rush defense in the league, allowing less than 77 yards per game. The play of the Williams Wall (DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams) are largely responsible. However, both are still fighting a legal battle against the StarCaps ruling. As a Packer fan, I can only hope they both miss part of the season due to suspension.

While the rush defense is solid, the pass defense is middling at best. The Vikes were able to lock up hard hitting CB Antoine Winfield, one of the lone bright spots in the secondary.

The Vikings were a top 5 rushing team offensively. They might improve on their 2008 season with the addition of second round draft pick, 6′8” OT Phil Loadholt. He’s an immediate upgrade on the right side of the line and should be productive, even though he will be learning on the job.

It’s a good thing the Vikings can run, because their passing game is missing several pieces. Bernard Berrian has his fair share of bobbles and drops. Sidney Rice is a nice red zone target, but has not been able to stay healthy. Did they Vikings swing and miss with rookie Percy Harvin? He’s had his fair share of off-the-field issues already, and the season hasn’t even started yet. He also came out of Florida which runs a system that is far removed from pro-style. As a result, UF receivers also seem to have problems transitioning to the NFL game.

Prediction: 8-10 wins

@dwadeofficial Cowherd joins the haters at ESPN, said if the playoffs started today and heat/hawks is the matchup, the hawks would sweep