Welcome to the (not so) wild AFC West preview

Where they stood

The AFC West’s finest was no match for the rest of the league. And had it not been for a criminally easy division schedule, the San Diego Super Chargers wouldn’t have even seen the playoffs. The Chargers went 5-1 in the division, winning only three games outside of it in 2008. The Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs lost more contests combined than there are games in two seasons. Who were the biggest losers? Well, the fans of course. Oh, and the 12-4 Indianapolis Colts who lost to the Chargers in San Diego during the first round of the playoffs.

Where they stand

If I had any vested interest in this division, it would pain me to write that only one of the four teams improved during the offseason – that team is the Chargers.

Team by team breakdown

Denver Broncos
Football pundits are always reminding us, the public, that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. My take is that you need either an outstanding quarterback who can deliver the ball exactly where it needs to go, at just the right time, or an extraordinary defense. Thanks to new head coach Josh McDaniels (who seems destined to be another Bill Belichick Coaching Tree failure), the Denver Broncos have neither. There are some bright spots on this team, however. Knowshon Moreno running behind a quality offensive line should be entertaining. Not sure he can be a three-down back, given he took himself out of games all the time at Georgia. The WR tandem of Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall is also one of the best in the league. The problem is that I have serious doubts that Kyle “Neckbeard” Orton will be able to distribute the ball as well as Cutler did. The Broncos, like several other teams, are transitioning from the 4-3 to the 3-4. This puts a lot of pressure on already underperforming (that’s even putting it generously) pass rushers to make plays. Why? Because the secondary is ancient and the defensive line is comprised of players who are either inexperienced (unaccustomed to actually playing on Sundays) or undersized. It will take a legendary effort by the LBs, led by DJ Williams, to keep the team afloat. Prediction: 2-4 wins

Kansas City Chiefs
Unlike the Broncos’ executive staff, Scott Pioli and the Chiefs made moves to ease the transition between defensive schemes. Please, do not expect to see results immediately. The Chiefs solid, albeit young, secondary is sure to improve – they will be tested all year. It remains to be seen whether Purdue’s Alex Magee, who played both tackle and end in college, will start alongside LSU’s Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey. The Chiefs are another team with problems rushing the passer. They would do best by going with Demorrio Williams and now OLB Turk McBride or Demorrio Williams on the outsides, rather than Tamba Hali (too slow) and Mike Vrabel (being given away for free is not a good sign). If the rush can improve, there will be less responsibility on ILBs Derrick Johnson and Zach Thomas as well as the secondary. Offensively, HB Larry Johnson proved difficult to get rid of, and to this day generates almost no interest from teams. HB Jamaal Charles may come on strong later in the year; making up for lost time and wasted Larry Johnson carries. In the passing game, I would continue to utilize spread offense and the screen game with both the receivers and backs, especially since the offensive line is a sieve. TE Brad Cottam needs to come out strong and show that he can be a multi-purpose player and a suitable replacement for Tony Gonzalez. Prediction: 3-5 wins

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are doomed until Al Davis dies and the curse of mismanagement by the undead is broken. The only thing the Raiders’ offense has going for them is a nice backfield with complimentary running styles. The Raiders need to be a running team and should have the offensive line to make sure that game plan is followed. If the Raiders’ expect to have a passing offense, they need to count on three things: 1. That TE Zach Miller continues to do this best Jason Witten impersonation; 2. That JaMarcus Russell can keep escaping the rush; 3. At least one WR emerges from the group as a reliable threat. The defense is safe with DC John Marshall (formerly with the Seahawks). Marshall knows how to use LBs well (see Tatupu, Hill, Peterson), so should have a lot of fun with Kirk Morrison, Thomas Howard, and new addition Greg Ellis. New blitz schemes should help the defensive line be more effective and help an underestimated secondary get the ball back to the offense. Perhaps Marshall can install a productive rotation on the defensive line, because there does not seem to be enough players who can play both the run and the pass equally well (the DT position is the biggest weakness). Prediction: 6-8 wins

San Diego Chargers
Look for the Chargers play the bully once again in the AFC West. They should be able to repeat their 5-1 division record and give themselves a good shot at making the playoffs again in 2009. A lot of blame has been put on Norv Turner, which should not be that surprising given his record of accomplishment and the amount of hate Marty Schottenheimer received. Maybe San Diegans haven’t realized it, but Turner has won in the playoffs with some banged up Chargers teams. Even though Tomlinson will play to prove that he is still an elite RB and will greatly improve his 2008 numbers, the Chargers’ should put the onus on their explosive passing game and use the running game as a complement with a less than dominant offensive line. WR Vincent Jackson is a huge target at 6’5’’ and a near impossible matchup for the average NFL DB. Philip Rivers will also have a healthy Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, and Malcolm Floyd at his disposal. The biggest question mark on the defense is the defensive line. The Chargers bid farewell to Igor Olshansky in the offseason, who should be replaced by DE Ryon Bingham, who has good size for the position. If the edge rushers at the linebacker position (Merriman, English, Tucker, Phillips) can improve their play and get into the form they were in just a few years ago, defensive line play won’t be as important. Finally, a healthy CB trio of Antonio Cromartie , Quentin Jammer, and second year man Antoine Cason should make S Eric Weddle and Clinton Hart look better. Prediction: 11-13 wins and AFC West winner

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2. NFL Preview: AFC South
3. NFL Preview: AFC North
4. NFL Preview: AFC East
5. NFL Preview: NFC North Six-Pack