The AFC South is home to the Indianapolis colts, who are almost a sure bet to make the playoffs each year, thanks to their high-octane, mechanized offense.  While, the Colts are the team that typically represents the division, the Tennessee Titans had their best season since 2000 and the Texans are on the rise, poised to have their first winning season since their inaugural campaign in 2002.  The Jacksonville Jaguars have had seasons alternating between surprisingly good and disappointingly bad, but are unofficially in rebuilding mode.

Where they stood

For the first time since 2002, the banged-up Colts failed to finish at the top of their division, despite a 12-4 record.  The Tennessee Titans, carried by HB Chris Johnson’s impressive rookie campaign and DT Albert Haynesworth’s “inspired” play, claimed the top spot and.  The Texans were 6-1 at home, but won just two games outside Texas and the Jaguars were plagued by injuries, winning just five games, but losing many close contests.

Where they stand

The Colts should find themselves at the top of the AFC South, followed by the Texans, Titans, and Jaguars.

Team by Team Breakdown

Houston Texans
The most surprising contributor in Houston last year was third round draft pick HB Steve Slaton.  While his stock dropped before the draft, he showed that he has first round talent gaining over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.  Slaton’s workload and numbers should increase in 2009.  The passing game should be in good hands as long as QB Matt Schaub can start all 16 games, something he has yet to do in his career.  Schaub, like most of the Texans, is underrated, whose passer rating has hovered around 90 and his completion percentage has been over 66%.  WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels will be top-five players at their respective positions.  Collectively, this offensive group should have a better showing than they had in 2008.  The greatest improvement, though, will be on the defensive end.  Rookies OLB Brian Cushing, DE Connor Barwin, and CB Glover Quin should all see playing time.  Cushing will team up with Caton June and DeMeco Ryans to field one of the better linebacking corps, Barwin (though relatively new to the position) should be able to put pressure on QBs in pass-rushing packages, and Quin should be able to see significant action at the nickel corner spot.  The DT and S spots left something to be desired last season, but with young players pushing veterans for starting spots in camp, the best at both positions should emerge.  Prediction: 10-12 wins

Indianapolis Colts
I fully expect Peyton Manning to have another 4,000 yard passing season.  Losing WR Marvin Harrison should not even be called a loss.  At this point in his illustrious career, he does not have anything left in the tank.  Austin Collie, out of BYU (a draft pick I loved), should be able to get a good number of balls thrown his way as the slot receiver.  Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark will be productive as usual.  I don’t expect Colts’ running game to be all that much better in 2009.  UConn HB Donald Brown is certainly an upgrade over the oft-injured Joseph Addai, but his impact will likely been seen more in the passing game coming out of the backfield.  The offensive line is at greater fault than the running backs though.  Last year, the line was also affected by injuries to C Jeff Saturday and LG Ryan Lilja, who spent the year on the PUP list.  LT Tony Ugoh needs to play better.  He has been a downgrade since Tarik Glenn retired.  The Colts’ generally undersized defense played pretty well last year, with the exception of not being able to stop the run.  I particularly like OLB Philip Wheeler who should have a great year, as defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is planning to send more blitzes this year.  A deeper DT rotation will also help free up edge rushers.  Is it even possible to see FS Bob Sanders start all 16 games? Prediction: 11-13 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will have a better season than they had in ’08, but not by much.  HB Maurice Jones-Drew and QB David Garrard will both be breathing heavy sighs of relief going into training camp, as the offensive line is both healthy and deep.  Although MoJo’s YPC decreased, albeit slightly in 2008, he was very effective in the red zone.  Most teams are relying on the two-back system to win games, but I see the Jaguars going in the opposite direction.  MoJo will get almost all of the carries, increasing his number of touchdowns, yards, and his average.  Garrard (fantasy buyers beware) will not have to pick himself up off the turf as often in 2009, but will be hindered by a painfully thin WR corps, even with the addition of Torry Holt.  It is so depleted that MoJo Drew might even lead the team in receptions.  Arguably, the Jags’ biggest weakness was a former strength – their defensive line.  While the defensive line is full of big names (John Henderson, Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey, Reggie Hayward), they failed to have big games.   The secondary suffered tremendously as a result.  If the front seven can earn their paychecks, the Jaguars defense will look like a completely different unit.  Position breakdowns aside, the Jaguars will not see the playoffs and Jack del Rio will see a pink slip at the end of the year.  Prediction: 6-8 wins

Tennessee Titans
First, Jim Schwartz’s departure to Detroit may be overstated.  Second, I think that people are understating the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth.  He is an absolute force during contract years and has been the driving force behind the Titans’ pass rush in 2007 and 2008.  DT Tony Brown played well, but will be teaming up with former Buccaneer Jovan Haye (who?), who had a marginal season in 2008.  Neither will be able to fill the enormous gap left by Fat Albert, who led the team in sacks in ’08 and was tied for third in ’07.  DE Kyle Vanden Bosche will struggle to free himself from double teams and Jevon Kearse will disappear entirely.  This will put a tremendous amount of pressure on the Titans’ LBs, who very may well be up to the task.  Their secondary has been extraordinary and I love the aggressiveness of CB Cortland Finnegan and the playmaking ability of FS Michael Griffin.  One question mark is CB Nick Harper, who seems to be running on empty.  The offense is starving for a second playmaker.  HB Chris Johnson might be the most explosive offensive player in the league, but unfortunately, his contribution will not be enough.  I like TE Bo Scaife, but am not very high on the rest of the Titans’ passing offense.  Defenses will happily stack the box, putting the pressure on a fantastic offensive line and on QB Kerry Collins to beat them (he won’t be able to).  Collins should no longer be a starting quarterback in the league.  He is far too conservative, evident in his pedestrian 6.4 yards per completion.  At the end of the day, the defense will spend too much time on the field and the Titans will lose games because of it.  Prediction: 7-9 wins

Related posts:

1. NFL Preview: NFC South Six-Pack
2. NFL Preview: AFC West
3. NFL Preview: AFC East
4. NFL Preview: AFC North
5. NFL Preview: NFC North Six-Pack