Now that we have taken a look through the roster and picked out some key players. It’s time to take a look at the schedule and see how the Canes should fair this year. Without even looking at the schedule, just gauging the state of the program, how Coach Shannon has adjusted the last couple years, and the talent on the field, I believe Miami should post about a 9 win season. They have loads of talent, but most impact players are still pretty young. Here is a look at the schedule, looking at what happened last year, and how it will be different this year.

9/7 – at Florida State

What Happened Last year: FSU came to Miami and gashed the front seven for 250+ yards on the ground. It wasn’t a pretty sight. They took a 24-3 halftime lead and seemed to be in complete control. Being a rivalry game, UM stormed back and came to within 2. Then, that running game that FSU dominated with in the first half, came back and on a 3 and long, FSU got a 20 yard touchdown run to ice the game. Miami hit a low point in the season, falling to 2-3, and appeared to have tons of problems on both sides of the ball.

What will Happen this Year: Expect this game to, first, be lower scoring, and second to remain close for the entire game. UM has added depth to its front seven and should be much more sound at the defensive front. With Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris being the unquestioned starters this year, expect the passing game to be a little more crisp and the offenses to not be afraid to take deep shots. The defenses will bend but not break on most occassions. Lots of FG being kicked. In the end, FSU has a slight edge in experience, plus its prime time on their field. FSU will win, but by no more than 3. (0-1)

9/17 – vs Georgia Tech

What Happened Last Year: Miami got their run defense shredded by Georgia Tech. Only this time, there was no miraculous, almost-come-back in the second half. Miami was embarrased a week after a statement win against the eventual ACC champs, Virginia Tech. Miami had no discipline in playing assignment football and let the triple option literally run all over them.

What Will Happen this Year: After suffering a close loss to FSU, expect Miami to come home motivated to finally get the Georgia Tech monkey off their back. During the decline of UM football, it has always seemed Georgia Tech was the backbreaking loss that ended a chance at a great season. This time, expect Miami’s front seven to show they deserve respect, at home, and beat Georgia Tech in a close game. This game will be decided more out of emotion than skill, also, its early in the year and these presition offenses (like the triple option) won’t be firing on all cylinders. (1-1)

9/26 – at Virginia Tech

What Happened Last Year: UM was coming off a 4 game winning streak and hosted Virginia Tech, prime time, thursday night. This was a breakout game for UM last year. UM showed it can move the ball well against an opportunistic defense (they couldn’t get the ball in the endzone easily though), and the defense was getting after the quarterbacks. UM came away with a close victory and made it back to the top 25 for the first time since 2006 (before getting spanked by Louisville).

What will Happen this Year: Now with Robert Marve and Sean Glennon out of the way, I expect Jacory Harris and Tyrod Taylor to have breakout games. Now as full fledged starters, and a few weeks into the year, they should be comfortable and in control of their offenses. The defenses will also play well so this should be one of those rare balanced college football games that is close and has enough scoring to not bore people. Even though everyone thinks VT is the team to beat this year in the ACC, Miami had no problem shutting down their running attack last year, and also got to the quarterback frequently, expect more of the same, and in the end, Miami should come away with a close victory. Both teams are better than they were last year, and I expect the same result as last year. (2-1)

10/3 – vs Oklahoma

What Happened Last Year: These teams didn’t meet last year, they met a year earlier. Oklahoma made UM look like a JV team in the second half of the game. UM was down 8 at the half and then the Sooners went to work. Miami’s pass defense was shredded and it was a reality check for UM, showing that there was a lot of work to be done to build the program back to dominance.

What will Happen this Year: Oklahoma is fresh off an appearance in the National Championship. UM is fresh off an appearance in the Emerald Bowl. Oklahoma lost a few more key players than UM, but they still have their quarterback (Heisman winner) Sam Bradford. UM is at home, and this game will probably be in prime time so expect UM to come out excited and playing with a lot of energy. If this game was played next year, I would say UM would win. But this year, UM is still one step away from that plateau of greatness. Oklahoma will make enough plays at the end of the game to win but UM will be noted for showing up the whole game this time and keeping it close. (2-2)

10/10 – vs Florida A&M

What Happened Last Year: These teams haven’t played since 2006. That game UM ran all over the Rattlers, dominating them after a close loss at FSU. There wasn’t any contest, nor should there have been. The Canes just had to lace up their cleets to win.

What will Happen this Year: Expect more of the same. This is the first easy game of the year. After a brutal four game stretch to open the season, Miami finally gets a breather and puts on an offensive and defensive clinic. Expect UM to hang 50+ on FAMU. (3-2)

10/17 – at Central Florida

What Happened Last Year: A week after losing a close, sloppy game to FSU, the Canes had an equally sloppy game against UCF. UM won, but only by 6. They gave up a pick 6 and a TD return on a kick off, UCF’s only scores. Had UCF’s offense been able to move the ball at all, they might have won the game. UM squeezed away with a victory and ended their two game home losing streak.

What will Happen this Year: This will be a trap game for UM. This game will have recruiting implications, and, based on how they fair at the beginning of the season, this could be a reality check game if they are over confident. This is one of two games this year where UM has nothing to gain and everything to lose. UCF wants to play against the big three in Florida and this would be a great opportunity to steal a win if UM isn’t ready to go. Still, the talent will outplay the hype in this game and UM should run away with it in the second half, once the depth charts start to show. (4-2)

10/24 – vs Clemson

What Happened Last Year: These teams haven’t played since 2005. UM had a thrilling triple over time win at Clemson in a game that, had they lost, Larry Coker could have been fired, and this rebuilding would have started a year earlier. UM had lost the opener to FSU and had to travel to death valley a week later. UM was pushed to the brink, but Kenny Phillips interception in the third overtime sealed the victory.

What will Happen this Year: Since this game is at home, and Clemson is in a slight rebuilding phase. Expect UM to be able to have a solid outing offensively. They will struggle a bit defensively due to CJ Spiller’s abilities, but in the end, the Canes should make enough plays to beat Clemson. This will be a game that I think the incomming freshmen will really start to come around and be noticed on the field. (5-2)

10/31 – at Wake Forest

What Happened Last Year: UM still had some defensive problems as Wake Forest came in and in their first offensive series, ran the ball every down and ended up scoring a touchdown. But after that, UM absorbed that blow and eventually maintained control of the game. UM won 16-10, in a solid win for Coach Shannon. He game planned well and beat a team that had a very good decision making QB in Riley Skinner, a very smart head coach in Jim Grobe, and a defense that featured two NFL studs (Aaron Curry, LB, and Alphonso Smith, CB).

What will Happen this Year: Expect UM to show even more growth from a talent and game planning stance. Wake Forest is slowly fading due to some of that NFL talent leaving and UM is quickly getting much better. Because this game is at Wake Forest, expect Wake to be very crisp on offense. They have a senior quarterback that can make plays. Miami will make enough plays down the stretch to win by probably a touchdown and a field goal. (6-2)

With UM sitting at 6-2 at this point (and probably ranked) in the season, These next games will be the ones that really tell us if Miami is on its way to being dominant. November is when you can show if your a champion or not.

11/7 – vs Virginia

What Happened Last Year: UM showed great resilience on the road, posting a come from behind, overtime victory against a team that started out horrible, but then beat UNC and Georgia Tech and had won 4 straight heading into their meeting with the Hurricanes. Jacory Harris led a drive that probably spanned 7 minutes of game clock and covered 95+ yards to a touchdown that tied the game. Then Miami scored in OT and forced a fumble by Virginia (Cedric Peerson’s first fumble of his career) to seal the victory.

What will Happen this Year: Virginia has gotten worse and Miami has gotten better. The last time Virginia was in town, they punked Miami in their last game in the Orange Bowl (48-0). Expect the crowd to be a little louder than usual. Miami should handle Virginia well and come away with the victory. (7-2)

11/14 – at North Carolina

What Happened Last Year: UM was coming of a sound win over Texas A&M and then seemed to have everything under control early against UNC. But Butch Davis is their coach and a veteran coach none the less and all of a sudden, UNC had taken the lead with a touchdown pass to Brooks Foster with 30 seconds left in the game. Robert Marve rushed UM down the field but on an improbable turn of events, Marve’s pass to Kayne Farquharson slipped through his finger tips and right into the hands of Trimane Goddard and that ended the game.

What will Happen this Year: It definitely seems like UM is in the drivers seat at this point in the year. UNC has been consistently getting better every year. Butch Davis is turning this program around and making them relevant in the ACC. For the past two years. When UM has played UNC it has been a case of Butch looking across the field at Randy Shannon and saying “I am still the master, and you are the apprentice.” Sadly, this will be another one of those games for Coach Shannon. However, this won’t be a result of Butch Davis’s savvy over Randy Shannon. It is more of the circumstance of the time and place the game will be played. Late November, at UNC, this game just seems to be another signature win for UNC and a blown opportunity for UM. This will open up the gates for potentially VaTech or even UNC taking the place of UM at the ACC Championship Game. A big loss for UM, but one that will definitely teach them a lot. (7-3)

11/21 – vs Duke

What Happened Last Year: Traditionally, you would think Duke was the push over school that UM could just stretch their legs and work on their timing against. Well the past couple years Duke has given UM a run for their money. Last year, however, UM appeared to be re-establishing its place over Duke. Duke came out strong and had a lead going into the half, but then Jacory Harris led a huge comeback that turned into a blow out. He threw four touchdowns and ran for another. UM gave up a garbage touchdown to Duke late, making the score not look as bad (49-31).

What will Happen this Year: Look for UM to take control of this game early, and not let up the entire game. UM will be coming off a close loss to UNC and will amend for it with a blowout victory over Duke. Duke may have some success in the first quarter, but Miami should put the game out of reach by halftime. This will be their last ACC game and suffering the loss to UNC may still have doubts about whether or not they reach the ACC title game. It will probably be the result of another game that decides UM’s post season fate. (8-3)

11/28 – at South Florida

What Happened Last Year: UM hasn’t played South Florida since 2005. Miami won a sloppy game 27-7 against a USF team still trying to establish consistency. That was the game where Greg Olsen had a sure touchdown taken away when he jogged into the endzone, but right before a hustling south florida defensive back poked it out of his hands through the endzone resulting in a touchback (USF ball). That was just an example of how the game was sloppy. Still, UM took care of business that night, and came away with the victory.

What will Happen this Year: This is the second game I was talking about where UM has nothing to gain and everything to lose. A loss to South Florida is more probable than a loss to UCF. South Florida is trying to prove they belong on the same level as the big three (FSU, UF, UM) and Miami losing this game could change the scope of recruiting in Florida permanently. That would not be good for any of the big three (especially UM). This game has “upset” written all over it. At this point in the season, especially if UM knows its fate regarding ACC Championship Game (in or out), they may not approach this game with the same intensity as they have all season. Its also prime time and at USF, that hurts Miami’s chances even more. Lastly, it will be senior night for QB Matt Grothe and DE George Selvie. All of these issues factor in to UM could very well lose this game and a lot of that could be decided before they even kick off. However, UM still has plenty of talent it can rely on and USF doesn’t have as much this year as compared to the previous two years. Jacory Harris is a natural competitor and I expect him to keep this team focused as at this point in the season he will be the unquestioned leader. UM will win a close one and keep the established ‘big 3′ as they are. (9-3)

Well there you have it. I made the nine win prediction at the top of the post before I even did the schedule analysis. I definitely believe UM has the talent now to be dominant, they just have to be developed. Randy Shannon is learning every day and he will be a better game planner and his assistants will coach these players up to their potential. Next year, I expect Miami to dominate, this year I can see glimpses of dominance.

Related posts:

1. The U Report: Miami Disrespected
2. The U Report: What Happened? 2008 in Review
3. The U Report: Roster Analysis – Defensive Line
4. The U Report: Roster Analysis – Quarterbacks
5. The U Report: Roster Analysis – Tight Ends