The last of the six major conferences I will cover is the SEC.  This conference has consistently had top tier teams and has been considered by many to be the strongest conference in the country.  I can definitely agree with this, but it always seems there are unexplained games that take shots at this conference power and  make me think its not leaps and bounds better than the rest of the conferences.

Where they stood

Last year this team had the national champion in Florida, plus plenty other top rated teams.  Alabama was undefeated until falling to eventual champs UF in the title game.  This conference fielded several top picks in the 2009 NFL draft, however, top to bottom, this conference was pretty weak, and it showed in bowl games, and in coaching firings.

Where they stand

This conference had a slight down year last year, and should be well equiped to rebound and be an elite conference again.  The conference ushers in several 1st and 2nd year coaches which will be evident as this conference continues to build.  The traditional powers of the conference, except for Florida, will struggle at first, as the regime change always takes time, but otherwise, this conference will still boast lots of speed and athleticism, as well as top defenses that will make this conference a power conference as usual.

Team by Team Breakdown

Alabama - Nick Saban has resurrected this team into contention.  A few plays going their way in the conference championship game and they might have been celebrating the national championship.  Instead, they’re getting embarassed by Utah.  The most important thing for Coach Saban to do is to replace senior QB John Parker Wilson, as well as, now SF 49ers, RB Glen Coffee.  This won’t be easy, but with the return of all universe freshman Julio Jones at WR, this team will still have some firepower and should be in the mix of conference contention as usual.  Prediction: 9-11 wins.

Arkansas – After Bobby Petrino jumped ship from the Falcons (I probably won’t ever forgive  him for that), he landed with a team that was in the pits and reeling after losing, shoulda-been-the-heisman, RB Darren McFadden.  Now, Petrino will show his worth and we’ll see if he can bring this program back up.  He now has transfer QB Ryan Mallett (from Michigan) and should shore up the offense this year.  Look for some small improvements, but still not to the point of conference contention.  Prediction: 5-7 wins.

Auburn – I still think firing “Click-Clack!” Tommy Tubberville was a mistake and giving him a chance to coach up the offense would have worked out fine, but we’ll see if it bite’s Auburn Administration in the butt this time.  Coach Gene Chizik takes the helm now as he tries to reverse the decline at Auburn.  Plus he has to beat Alabama or he’ll get fired.  The offense was miserable last year, but assuming QB Kodi Burns makes progress this year, they should be a bit better.  Still, an average season as the culture change has to happen also.  Prediction: 5-7 wins.

Florida – Last year’s national champions, 2007’s Heisman trophy winner, some of the fastest backs/receivers in the country, Urban Meyer’s slick offense….all of this spells plenty more success in 2009.  Especially with the rest of the SEC in a minor flux, Florida could easily find its way back in the national title game.  I don’t know if Tebow will win the Heisman again, not because of his abilities or the numbers he will put up, but more because of the politics behind it (Tyler Hansbrough should have won national player of the year twice in his career but he only won it once).  This team only has one real competition in the SEC East and that’s Georgia (as much as Lane Kiffin wants the Tenn – UF matchup to be big, its not gonna happen).  I see no realistic way Florida doesn’t make the SEC championship game again this year.  Prediction: 10-12 wins.

Georgia – This is the one team that can challenge Florida in the SEC East.  However, its not going to happen.  Georgia has a lot of talent to replace on its roster, and Florida returns a hefty amount of its talent.  Knowshon Moreno is gone, 1st overal pick in the 2009 NFL draft Matthew Stafford is gone (and he is the next Joey Harrington thanks to the Lions thinking drafting a QB will fix their embarasment of a franchise) and there are plenty more missing pieces that Mark Richt has to replace.  In the end, I see Georgia coming up a game or two short of Florida in the East.  Prediction: 8-10 wins.

Kentucky – Rich Brooks (HC) has a solid team, problem is he can’t win enough conference games to be relevant.  He went 7-6 last year overall and still finished dead last in the SEC East (2-6 in conference).  That is terrible for a team trying to prove it belongs in the conversation of contention.  This year the development of Mike Hartline is crucial, he needs to find the endzone more for this team to have success in a defensive heavy conference.  Look for small improvements this year.  Prediction: 6-8 wins.

LSU – Since winning the national championship in 2007 (with 2 losses, first time in BCS history), the Tigers struggled a bit.  They had a tough year in conference (3-5) and had QB issues going on even before the season started.  Projected starter Ryan Perrilloux was kicked off the team leading to freshman Jarrett Lee being thrown into the fire.  He did alright, look for him to improve as LSU climbs back in the standings this year.  Prediction: 8-10 wins.

Mississippi – This was the darling suprise of the SEC in 2008.  Going 5-3 in conference, including a win over UF (in Gainesville) was very impressive.  This team finished strong (including a beatdown over Texas Tech) and showed they were going to be a force in the conference in the years to come.  For 2009, they will be the lone challenge for Alabama to win the SEC West.  QB Jevan Snead had a very strong sophomore campaign and look for him to improve even more this year.  Prediction: 8-10 wins.

Mississippi State – This team was confusing to me, they seemed to have a breakout year in 2007 and HC Sylvester Croom seemed to be establishing himself as a high level coach.  Then in 2008, they were back to being awful again, and Croom was fired.  Now they went out and got Dan Mullen (OC at Florida) to come in and revive this team.  Well, he has work to do if he wants to compete in the SEC.  He’ll have a senior QB in Tyson Lee, but instituting a new offense will be very difficult.  Look for more struggles this year.  Prediction: 3-5 wins.

South Carolina – The ‘Ole Ball Coach has just about worn out his welcome at South Carolina.  He has had too many years of inconsistency in my opinion.  Hiring him should have really made this team a contender in conference every year, but it hasn’t.  They have been average every year in conference.  After QB scandals in the last couple years, look for Chris Smelley to show improvement this year and look for South Carolina’s favorable schedule to lead to more success than usual.  Prediction: 7-9 wins.

Tennessee – Last year Tennessee fired long time coach Phil Fulmer.  It wasn’t a case of, “you can’t coach, and our team is awful because of it,” it was more of a case of “you’ve been a great coach for a long time, and it has run it’s course and we are ready to go in a new direction.”  So they brought in Lane Kiffin, whose enthusiasm has revived Volunteer land.  With only 4 road games, look for Tennessee to rebound this year and look for some rare Heisman talk happen when referring to CB Eric Berry.  This team should be just under the elite in the conference.  Prediction: 7-9 wins.

Vanderbilt – QB Mackenzi Adams had a strong junior year, and look for him to build on that in 2009.  However, the rest of the team will struggle.  The defense has to rebuild and the WR core lost its best playmaker in Sean Walker.  This team was mediocre last year, and look for more of the same this year.  Prediction: 5-7 wins.

Looking back on what I wrote, a common theme seems to be new coaches.  There are 5 1st or 2nd year coaches in the conference, and that is due to drop offs of traditional SEC powers.  It is for this reason that I think the conference this year will not be as great as we are acustomed to them being.  In fact, I believe the ACC might make a claim to be just as good as the SEC by seasons end.  That’s just the reality.  There are two legit national championship contenders in this conference, and I believe after that there may be two more teams that will make national noise, after that, there is a lot of inconsistency.  Florida will win the conference and redeem themselves against Mississippi in Atlanta, on there way to losing against Southern Cal in the national championship.

Conference Standings:

SEC East (1st to Last): Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West (1st to Last): Mississippi, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State

SEC Championship Game Prediction – Florida beats Mississippi

Related posts:

1. College Football Preview: Pac Ten
2. College Football Preview: Big East
3. College Football Preview: ACC
4. College Football Preview: Big Twelve
5. College Football Preview: Big Ten